Lion Strategy

The Intelligence Economy

A personal view of the frontier.
And what it means for you.

Essays for decision makers on AI, judgement, trust and the economics of abundant intelligence.

Start here

AI & engineering · 5 min

Back to the Future of Engineering

AI may be reviving an old sequence: performance first, explanation later. Machine search now produces designs that work before anyone can explain why.

The old sequence was build, survive, copy. The new one may be specify, search, assure - with human responsibility moving upstream into the objectives and downstream into the proof.

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01

AI & engineering · 5 min

Back to the Future of Engineering

AI may be reviving an old sequence: performance first, explanation later - and assurance, not explanation, carrying the burden of trust.

02

Agentic commerce · 7 min

The Double Agent Economy

When software shops for us, the useful question is not what it can do. It is who the agent works for - and where behavioural rents migrate.

03

AI sovereignty · 23 min

Sovereignty not included

Most enterprise AI risk sits outside the contract. Eight levers reveal what a model the organisation does not own hands to someone else.

04

Decision rights · 12 min

Judgement. Exposed.

When agents do the work they absorb the context judgement is built from - leaving humans to decide more and understand less.

05

Corporate security · 5 min

The Sovereignty Sieve

Proprietary intelligence is leaving through two doors: the approved model and the shadow system nobody installed.

06

Technology risk · 9 min

When no one in the room knows

Why the most expensive technology bet in modern history rests on a capability test most buyers have not run.

07

AI economics · 3 min

What love teaches us about AI

As intelligence commoditises, value migrates to the relationship layer. Human attachment recognised that scarcity long ago.

08

Unit economics · 9 min

Railways or South Sea? Yes.

The AI economy is two business models pretending to be one. One is laying rails; the other is financing freemium fog.

09

Strategy · 4 min

Beyond intelligence

When reasoning is abundant, judgement, trust, context and orchestration become scarce - and that is where value moves.

10

Market structure · 4 min

Free is not a price

When a credible free alternative arrives, premium pricing does not erode gradually. It changes regime.

11

Political economy · 5 min

China Shock 2.0

Cheap intelligence creates the asymmetry cheap manufacturing once did. The last shock’s lesson was the policy vacuum.

12

Talent · 4 min

The AI rung gap

Knowledge work is being automated on the same pattern as the power loom - but the work disappearing is also how experts are made.

13

Institutional memory · 5 min

Your AI has amnesia

Firms pulling ahead are not using better models. They are building the context systems that make each model interaction cumulative.